Public opinion on Britain’s relationship with the European Union has undergone a substantial transformation, with new polling indicating that a clear majority would now vote to rejoin the bloc if given another opportunity. According to a YouGov survey conducted earlier this year, 63 per cent of the UK population would support rejoining the EU, compared with 37 per cent who would prefer to remain outside.
The findings arrive as the country approaches a significant anniversary. It will soon be ten years since the 23 June 2016 referendum in which the UK voted 52 per cent to 48 per cent to leave the European Union, a decision that triggered years of political upheaval and economic debate. The reversal in sentiment captured by the polling suggests that nearly a decade of living with Brexit’s consequences has fundamentally altered how Britons assess the original decision.
The Generational Divide Deepens
The most striking aspect of the YouGov data is the overwhelming support for rejoining among younger voters. Among those aged 18 to 25, a remarkable 86 per cent would back re-entry to the bloc, with just 14 per cent preferring to stay out. This demographic, many of whom were too young to participate in the 2016 vote, now forms the strongest constituency in favour of closer European ties.
Yet perhaps more surprising is the shift among older voters, traditionally viewed as Brexit’s core support base. Among those who are now retired, 60 per cent would vote to rejoin, compared with 40 per cent who would keep the UK outside the EU. This represents a significant departure from the 2016 pattern, when older demographics provided decisive support for leaving.
Why This Matters
The polling captures a fundamental reassessment of Britain’s European relationship taking place across the electorate. Since formally exiting the EU in 2020, successive surveys have documented growing “Bregret” among the public, with concerns over trade barriers, economic growth and freedom of movement frequently cited as reasons for changing views.
The scale of the shift is substantial. A 26-percentage-point margin in favour of rejoining represents a near-reversal of the four-point leave victory in 2016. If these figures reflected actual voting behaviour, they would constitute one of the most dramatic turnarounds in British political opinion in modern history.
The generational dimension carries particular long-term implications. Younger voters who now overwhelmingly favour EU membership will form an increasingly large share of the electorate over coming decades, whilst older demographics who supported Brexit in greater numbers will gradually diminish. This demographic arithmetic suggests that pro-European sentiment may strengthen further over time unless economic or political circumstances shift dramatically.
What Happened
The YouGov survey, conducted earlier this year, asked respondents how they would vote if a new referendum on EU membership were held. The results showed 63 per cent support for rejoining against 37 per cent opposition, representing a decisive margin in favour of re-entry.
Breaking down the figures by age reveals stark generational differences. The 18-25 age cohort demonstrates near-consensus support at 86 per cent, whilst even among retirees – a group that provided crucial support for leave in 2016 – a clear majority of 60 per cent now favour rejoining.
The polling emerges against the backdrop of Britain approaching the tenth anniversary of the original referendum. Since that June 2016 vote delivered a narrow victory for leave, the country has experienced profound political and economic changes. The UK formally departed the EU in 2020 after years of fraught negotiations over the withdrawal agreement and future trading relationship.
The Brexit Reckoning
The evolution in public opinion reflects lived experience with Brexit’s practical consequences. Trade barriers between Britain and the European single market have complicated commerce for businesses large and small. Economic growth has lagged behind comparable nations, though disentangling Brexit’s specific impact from other factors including the pandemic and global economic headwinds remains contentious.
Freedom of movement restrictions have affected both British citizens’ ability to travel, work and study in Europe and EU nationals’ rights in the UK. Labour shortages in sectors previously reliant on European workers have generated economic friction, whilst British professionals face new obstacles to continental employment.
The Conservative Government’s recent pursuit of regulatory alignment with Brussels through the proposed sanitary and phytosanitary agreement suggests even those who championed Brexit recognise the costs of divergence in certain areas. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s characterisation of this approach as a pragmatic “reset” rather than rejoining attempts to navigate between economic realities and political sensitivities.
Yet the polling indicates the public may be ahead of political leaders in reconsidering the fundamental question. Whilst both major parties have ruled out campaigning for EU re-entry, grassroots sentiment appears to be moving decisively in that direction.
What Happens Next
Currently, there is no indication that a second referendum on EU membership is imminent. Neither the Labour Government nor the Conservative opposition has signalled any intention to revisit the question, both parties conscious of the political trauma the Brexit years inflicted and wary of reigniting those divisions.
The European Union would also need to consent to British re-entry, a process that would likely involve detailed negotiations over terms and conditions. Having departed once, the UK could not assume it would regain its previous opt-outs and special arrangements, including the budget rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher. Re-entry might require accepting the euro currency and fuller integration than Britain ever previously contemplated.
The tenth anniversary of the original referendum will likely prompt renewed public debate about Brexit’s legacy and Britain’s European future. Campaign groups advocating for closer ties with the EU may use the polling data to argue for a fresh popular vote, whilst those who support the current arrangements will emphasise sovereignty and the need to move beyond constitutional questions.
What This Means for the UK
The polling places the Government in a delicate position. Whilst Sir Keir Starmer pursues closer regulatory alignment with Brussels on practical grounds, he has firmly ruled out rejoining the single market or customs union, let alone the EU itself. Yet his approach of seeking a “reset” acknowledges that the pure Brexit vision has encountered real-world difficulties.
The overwhelming support for rejoining among younger voters presents a particular challenge for political parties. Any party that positioned itself as explicitly pro-rejoin could potentially mobilise this demographic, yet would risk alienating older voters and those in leave-supporting constituencies. The generational divide captured in the polling suggests that Britain’s European question will remain contested for years to come.
Economic considerations will likely drive the debate’s evolution. If Brexit continues to be associated with relative economic underperformance, pressure for a fundamental rethink may grow. Conversely, if Britain demonstrates it can thrive outside EU structures, public opinion could stabilise or even shift back towards acceptance of the status quo.
The polling also highlights the gap between elite political consensus and public sentiment. Both major parties have decided that relitigating Brexit is politically unwise, yet the electorate appears increasingly willing to reconsider. Whether that gap widens or narrows will shape British politics in the decade ahead.
Key Facts and Background
What were the original referendum results in 2016?
On 23 June 2016, the UK voted 52 per cent to 48 per cent to leave the European Union, a margin of approximately 1.3 million votes out of more than 33 million cast.
When did the UK formally leave the EU?
Britain officially departed the European Union on 31 January 2020, after three and a half years of negotiations following the referendum. A transition period ended on 31 December 2020.
What is “Bregret”?
The term refers to regret among voters who supported Brexit but have since changed their minds based on the consequences of leaving, or among remain voters reflecting on the outcome. Polls since 2020 have consistently documented growing sentiment that Brexit was a mistake.
Would rejoining be straightforward?
No. The UK would need to apply for membership like any other candidate country. The EU would set terms, likely requiring Britain to accept conditions it previously opted out of, including potentially adopting the euro currency and participating in fuller integration.
Is a second referendum likely?
There is currently no indication from either major party that a second referendum is being considered. Both Labour and the Conservatives have ruled out campaigning for EU re-entry, though they differ on how closely to align with Brussels regulations.
What explains the shift in older voters’ opinions?
The polling does not provide explanations, but concerns over trade barriers, economic performance and freedom of movement restrictions have been frequently cited in surveys documenting changing views since 2020.
